Iran Be Gone?

There is an interesting study by Roger Stern of Johns Hopkins University indicating that Iran's "oil weapon" is in serious decline. At present rates of Iranian oil production (slightly less than 4 million barrels per day), little reinvestment into aging oil fields, a U.S. campaign threatening financing of Iranian oil projects by international banks, and surging domestic demand within the country at very subsidized prices, the amount of oil left for export is declining by 10-15% per year. If that rate were to continue, by 2015 Iran would have no oil left for export, seriously diminishing its cash receipts and its role as a Persian Gulf threat and financier of global terrorism. The fresh thinking attributable to the study suggests that the Iranians are perhaps inflicting more harm on themselves (at least $20-30 billion annually is given away in the form of internal domestic subsidies just to keep restive elements placated) than the U.S. could ever do in a military campaign. A simple waiting action by the U.S. could inflict "paper tiger" status on Tehran.

In my book "The Gambit", the need for higher oil revenues by Tehran is depicted by their collaboration within a conspiracy to spike global oil prices via orchestrated terrorist events.

See: http://www.thegambitsite.com [Read the "Iran and Oil" theme page]